Home 9 Non categorizzato 9 Race to the lottery, part 2

Race to the lottery, part 2

Embiid
Autore: Sergio Vivaldi
Data: 10 Mar, 2017

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Second part of our focus on the bottom-10 of the Nba standings. The 5-worst teams in the league, with the only exception of the Brooklyn Nets, will welcome the top college prospects in the 2017 draft. Keeping an eye on them, keeping track of their lottery odds and understanding the current team situation is extremely important. Here is a quick look at the Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets. Part One is available here.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Joel Embiid Experience lasted 786 minutes and 31 games, including a certain amount of scheduled rest for caution. However, nothing could prevent a partial meniscus tear in his knee that will keep him out for the rest of the season. And yet, his performances were so impressive one could make the case for him to win Rookie of the Year, although it would be unprecedented to have a winner with such a small sample size. That has more to do with how bad this rookie class was. The Nerlens Noel problem has been solved, and the team probably got back less than what it might have, but kept its word and sent Noel into a situation where he can be a starter. The Jahlil Okafor problem is still a static presence in the paint that is of no help whatsoever

 

but that might be fixed in the summer. Despite all the criticism, the 76ers future is bright. Nobody hopes Embiid’s career will be cut short because of injuries (as for the Greg Oden comparison, he is sidelined with a knee injury, which is certainly concerning, but it has nothing to do with the foot that kept him off the court for 2 years), but if it had to happen, Philadelphia has more chances at a franchise player. The 76ers will have a high draft pick in 2017 (the best one between the Sacramento Kings pick and their own), will have a first round draft pick from the Los Angeles Lakers (in 2017 or 2018, more on that later) and an unprotected 2019 first round pick from the Kings. And they’ve got Sam Hinkie to thank for such a treasure. This roster also has a few talents that could make the presenter brighter than what it really is: Dario Saric showed a lot of promise and is a legit Rookie of the Year candidate, if voters will decide not to consider Embiid. The Process lives on.

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Orlando Magic

Aaron Gordon, in una delle schiacciate al Dunk Contest dell’All Star Game 2016.

The Orlando Magic management has been determined to go back to the playoff for the first time since Dwight Howard was around. After last year fiasco with Scott Skiles, the team hired a defensive minded coach who always relied on individual talent to run the offense in Frank Vogel. The roster was also restructured to offer the new coach exactly the kind of defensive minded players he wanted: the Magic were not going to pay Victor Oladipo in free agency and shipped him and the pick that eventually became Domantas Sabonis to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Serge Ibaka. They went on to offer Bismack Biyombo 17M/year. That formed a huge frontcourt that already saw Nikola Vucevic, the kind of center who is very effective in creating for himself and his teammates (much better than anyone at roster, guards included), and Aaron Gordon, the only player with star potential (but not franchise-player potential). Overall, that is a lot of mediocre players with no major offensive talent to rely on.

To nobody’s surprise, it never worked. Gordon was stuck on the perimeter because of Serge Ibaka and played poorly. When Ibaka was shipped to the Toronto Raptors, Gordon went back to the power forward spot and played very well. Vucevic is good for the team’s offense, but he is a major drawback on defense. He might be putting up 20 points and 12 rebounds, but he is probably going to give up 25 and 12 on the other side of the ball. Their guard rotation might be good enough for a second unit, but they are forced into starting role (don’t let Elfrid Payton back-to-back triple-doubles fool you). Terrence Ross cannot move the needle in a significant way in such a short time, if ever. And that’s how a team built to make the playoff will have another high lottery pick.

The only positive is that the Magic own all of their future picks and might receive a 2019 Los Angeles Lakers first round pick, the last piece of the 2012 Dwight Howard trade. Unfortunately for the Magic, they cannot influence in any way the outcome of that pick, which might turn into second rounders in 2017 and 2018. It will depend mostly on the Lakers and luck.

 

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Phoenix Suns

Booker

Devin Booker, marcato da Kawhi Leonard

The Suns are a tough puzzle to solve. Eric Bledsoe has been playing the best season of his career and would love to stay with the team. Yet, the Suns have been awful and will likely have a shot at one of the top PGs next June and pair that player with Devin Booker. That pairing would make sense, at least in terms of age. Speaking of Devin Booker, he is a huge talent but he is also showing an attitude, reminding of your average Duke Bad Boy (a Kentucky kid turning to Duke, see what I did there?) in the last few weeks. He is only 20 and has a lot of growing up to do, but it would be wise to avoid building that kind of reputation. The Suns cannot afford it just yet. The potential talented guard chosen in the draft will have to deal with Tyler Ulis as well, who has been playing great in the last few weeks and is averaging 10 points and over 5 assists. Just ask the Boston Celtics.

A jump-ball between Isaiah Thomas and Tyler Ulis is forever.

 

As for the other rookies, Dragan Bender underwent ankle surgery and will be back next season, but in the games he actually played he seemed hesitant and had a tendency to settle for jumpers instead of taking advantage of his height. The difference in athleticism was certainly a factor there and it is too early for it to be a source of concern, but there is a lot of work to do. Marquese Chriss certainly has no issues with his athleticism and showed actual progress in his first year and there is room for optimism. The Suns own all of their draft picks, but the coaching side is certainly an area where they can improve as well.

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Los Angeles Lakers

Russell

D’Angelo Russell

Plenty of changes on the management side, but the drama is not over yet, since Jeanie Buss‘s brothers brought the issue in court and tried to make a power move to force her out of the presidency. As for the basketball side of things, the new Lakers GM is officially Rob Pelinka, ex agent for Kobe Bryant and James Harden, and he will work with newly appointed Magic Johnson, President of Basketball Operation. Their first goal for the season is to lose as much as they can and keep the 2017 pick.

As previously said, the Lakers will only keep their 2017 pick if it falls in the top 3, otherwise it will go to the Philadelphia 76ers. And this Lakers team truly needs a transcendent star to build around. But it goes beyond the talent pool in the 2017 draft. If the 76ers had to get the pick next June, the Lakers will also lose an unprotected first rounder in 2019 to the Orlando Magic, the last piece of the 2012 Dwight Howard trade (just like that 2017 or 2018 pick to the 76ers is the last piece of the 2012 Steve Nash trade). However, if the Lakers had to keep their pick next June, the 76ers will receive an unprotected 2018 first rounder and the Magic will not receive a 2019 unprotected first, but second round picks in 2017 and 2018. That is because of the Stephien Rule, introduced in the 80s to prevent teams from trading first round picks in consecutive years (no rule prevents the team from drafting the players, signing him and the trading him before training camp even starts, see the trade that sent Kevin Love to Cleveland and Andrew Wiggins to Minnesota). The 2017 draft is extremely important in Los Angeles, and as of right now, the Lakers have a 55.1% chance to keep their pick.

As for their roster: D’Angelo Russell might be the best sidekick to any franchise player, Brandon Ingram showed flashes of huge potential amid struggles and inconsistencies, Julius Randle might be an elite role player (think of Draymond Green and the Warriors), Larry Nance Jr might actually be part of an Nba rotation and the Ivica Zubac hype train is at full steam. The Lakers are missing one piece, one Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball to be the center of everything and be truly dangerous. And if the management turmoil had to stop it would be a plus.

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New Jersey Nets

Levert

Caris LeVert

It will be a long and painful rebuild for the Nets, or at least that’s what it looks like and what management seems to be planning for. The 3rd pick in the 2016 draft (Jaylen Brown) went to the Celtics. Boston will have the rights to swap their own first round pick with the Nets (46.5% chance to be a top 2 pick, 100% chance to be top 4), but it will cost the Celtics a 2017 second round pick – essentially, this is a loophole in the Stephien Rule. The Nets will also lose their unprotected first round pick in 2018 to the Boston Celtics. Those were the pieces involved in the 2013 trade that sent Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry to Brooklyn.

Brooklyn will have two first round picks in the 20s (one from Boston because of the swap, one from Washington because the Bojan Bogdanovic trade) and a couple of second rounders. It will be up to the Nets scouting department to find another diamond-in-the-rough like Caris LeVert, who has been doing well once he came back from injury and might be a starting caliber guard in the league. The Jeremy Lin signing prevented Yogi Ferrell to have a future in Brooklyn and the team lost him to Dallas. Isaiah Whitehead had a promising year, despite plenty of rookie mistakes. Truth is, the Nets will need plenty of luck in the draft and will have to do a great job scouting the D-League and Europe for talents, just like the Miami Heat did last summer, or they will surrender another top 5 pick the Celtics in 2018. Brooklyn, however, lacks the structure and the experience to develop the players internally, while that’s a strong area for the Pat Riley-led Miami Heat. The Nets are a couple of years away from being a couple of years away.

 

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